Death Rate Continues to Decline
By year-end 2008, the United States recorded 1.20 percent fewer deaths than the year before, And the trend seems to be continuing-as of Feb.3, 2009, the death rate was down 2.76 percent versus the same time last year. The data was supplied courtesy of Deanne Hill; market analyst with Aurora Casket Co. in Aurora, Ind. Hill spends part of her day analyzing death rates and ethnic trends to assist the national company with product development and sales projections. “The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) provides data in a weekly publication titled MMWR which is the Morbidity Mortality Weekly Report,” says Hill, who joined Aurora Casket Co. two years ago.”They report deaths in 122 sample cities weekly all over the United States.” Hill adds that despite the aging baby boomer population, the current trend has seen a decline in the death rate across North America. “Our death rate has gone down the last couple of years which is attributable to rising life expectancy rates, and obviously better medicine and moderate temperatures,” she says. However, Hill, like many industry analysts, believes that North America will soon experience a hike in the death care rate. While Hill does not expect the death rate trend to reverse this year she says it will likely have a substantial impact on the funeral industry in the near future.
Latest statistics indicate people are living longer; however, an increase is inevitable as baby boomers age.
An American Cemetery article written by Vanderlyn R. Pine titled, “The Demography of Death,” states that over the course of the 20th century, the proportions of the population that are middle-aged and older have grown considerably. Pine writes, “The implications of this increase for health care, social security, long-term health care, patterns of dying and death, the funeral industry, the use of cemetery space and other end-of-life rituals matters are immense.” While Pine states that predictions are always risky, careful projections using well-measured facts are certainly a worthwhile endeavor. Based on his research, he believes there will be a drop in the annual number of deaths… and that this downward annual trend will continue until approximately 2013, at which time there is likely to be a steady and fairly rapid rising number of deaths each year for the foreseeable future. Hill says it is important for a large casket manufacturer like Aurora to regularly analyze the death rate as well as other trends in the death care market. “The death rate is important to many things we do from forecasting to other business decisions,” says Hill. Aurora Casket Co. a family business, established in 1890, is the largest privately owned casket manufacturer in the United States. With more than 200 employees, Aurora has grown into a successful and innovative company with 54 service centers across the country. In Canada, Aurora products are available through its Canadian partner Alliance-St. Laurent as well as their strategic union with Victoriaville Funeral Supplies. While Hill says it is vital for Aurora to forecast sales and trends, it is equally important for funeral homes to be aware of changes in their local market. Correctly projecting sales helps funeral homes reduce the amount of excess stock in their facilities. “There are different options for funeral homes,” says Hill. “Instead of carrying the entire inventory in the funeral home we also have technology-added showrooms. Instead of the traditional, full-sized caskets in a display room…. We have everything on a computer. So that would help funeral homes if they know the death rate and don’t have to hold too much inventory.” In addition to a likely increase in the future death rate, Hill identifies that North American is experiencing an increase in cremation. To help fill the demand for cremation-related products, Aurora also carries a complete line of cremation produces. “The cremation rate is increasing,” says Hill, adding that despite the increase in cremation products, Aurora’s future will still be focused on manufacturing caskets for the North America market. Any change to the industry will certainly have an impact. Analysts across the country will continue watching the trends, including the anticipation of a future increase in a currently declining death rate. Cremation Options is available at 1-877-989-9090 for any further questions or concerns that you have with respect to cremation services or products.
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